February 2022 #texasfreeze offers ERCOT a practice run

Many Texans faced forecasts of the early February 2022 winter storm with a degree of anxiety. Last year’s energy system failures had horrendous consequences including lost lives and damaged property. The energy system failures in the biggest energy producing state resulted in billions in damages.

The forecasts were clear this year that nothing like last year’s long, deep freeze was expected. Still, many worried.

As it turned out the forecasts were true enough. There was a two-day period with temperatures stuck below freezing, but nothing like last year. In February 2021 the Dallas-Fort Worth area stayed below freezing for about 130 consecutive hours, but the February 2-5 winter storm remained below freezing just 44 hours.

All in all, the early February freeze made for a practice run for Texas energy suppliers, but not a severe test of the ERCOT-managed power grid. Natural gas supply remains a concern, both because its state regulator appeared relatively unconcerned about last year’s failures and because productions has dipped with freezing temperatures this winter.

The chart below shows temperatures at Dallas Love Field, starting with the hour before temperatures dropped below freezing and ending when temperatures rose above freezing. The early February 2022 event is shown in blue and the solid black is a January 2018 cold snap it resembles. The January 2018 did not produce any serious problems for ERCOT, so there would be few reasons to expect this similar freeze to be a challenge either.

Three other winter weather events are shown for comparison, including last year’s freeze and the February 2011 winter storm. Data described below.

February 2022 is not over yet and we may yet get another winter blast in Texas. No one should declare “mission accomplished.” But the cold did let ERCOT practice it’s “all hands on deck” winter response. They’ll also get a chance to review how things went and be better ready next time.

Chart data: Data above for 2011-2021 collected from the NOAA’s National Centers for Environmental Information. The NCEI data runs about 3 to 5 days behind the present, so I hand scraped hourly data from the Weather Underground history page which is up to date. All data from Dallas Love Field. Obviously it is a big state so one location does not tell the full story.